How Riffle’s numbers work
Every stat on Riffle links back here. This is what each number means, how it is figured, and what Riffle deliberately does not claim. Estimates, not financial advice.
The value band
A card’s market price shows as a band, not a single figure: the middle 80% of clean market activity across independent price sources, refreshed daily. It is not the cheapest listing and not the most hopeful one. When the data thins, the band widens and says so, rather than faking a precision it doesn’t have. Exact source prices are a paid figure; the band is ours to publish.
Market momentum & the pulse
Momentum is breadth: the share of cards trading above their own 7-day average minus the share below, so one big card having a big day can’t swing the read. The same vocabulary, from heating up to cooling off, labels the whole market, each era, each set, and each artist identically. A percent move is Riffle’s own derived math and is always free.
Pack expected value
For sets with real pull rates, the pack EV sums each hit rarity’s pull rate times the average market value of a card at that rarity, counting only the “hit” tiers. Pack cost is a sealed booster box divided by 36 (or a bundle by 6). The PSA-10 ceiling values those same hits as if every one graded a perfect 10: an upper bound, never an expectation.
Grading return
The grade-or-sell-raw edge is derived from a card’s own PSA gem rate and current graded market prices, minus a bulk-rate grading fee, compared against selling the card ungraded. It assumes a near-mint copy and ignores centering risk, sub-9 outcomes, turnaround, and shipping. The edge is free; the exact PSA 9 and 10 prices behind it are premium.
The clocks
eBay activity, graded prices, and the PSA population census accrue daily and can never be backfilled: a missed day is a permanent hole, and a gap monitor watches for one. What you see is what Riffle actually observed, dated. Time depth is earned a day at a time, which is why history is the part worth paying for.
What Riffle does not do
No financial advice: every number is observational and estimated. No blurred teasers, no invented rows: a locked feature states its name and its price plainly. No exact vendor prices on free surfaces: the numbers Riffle derives (percent moves, breadth, pack EV, grading edge) are ours to publish free, even when exact; numbers anchored to a source price (card values, graded ladders) are banded free and exact with premium; and the history of either is premium.
Questions about a specific number? Every card, set, and leaderboard page carries an “as of” date and links back to this page. Riffle is an independent price-reference tool and estimated values are its own derived figures, not exact vendor prices, and not financial advice.