What’s a Pokémon booster pack worth?
Expected pull value vs pack cost for every set, ranked — plus the PSA-10 ceiling. As of July 17, 2026.
On every set we track, a sealed pack returns less raw value than it costs.
Expected raw pull value tops out around $9.76 a pack, while packs cost more than that everywhere — so opening packs is entertainment, not an investment. The upside lives in the chase: a single graded hit (the PSA-10 ceiling column) can be worth many packs. Observational only, never advice.
| Set | EV / pack | Pack cost | Avg gain / loss | PSA-10 ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 151 · 2023 | $9.76 | $26.01 | −$16.25 | $67.38 |
| Black Bolt · 2025 | $7.43 | $12.33 | −$4.90 | $42.53 |
| Paldean Fates · 2024 | $6.97 | $27.67 | −$20.70 | $56.70 |
| White Flare · 2025 | $6.71 | $11.99 | −$5.28 | $36.69 |
| Ascended Heroes · 2026 | $6.52 | $13.67 | −$7.15 | $47.74 |
| Paldea Evolved · 2023 | $4.56 | $13.60 | −$9.04 | $43.56 |
| Shrouded Fable · 2024 | $4.17 | $10.58 | −$6.41 | $24.29 |
| Prismatic Evolutions · 2025 | $4.03 | $13.29 | −$9.26 | $27.27 |
| Phantasmal Flames · 2025 | $3.81 | $11.57 | −$7.76 | $29.45 |
| Temporal Forces · 2024 | $3.63 | $8.83 | −$5.20 | $27.31 |
| Destined Rivals · 2025 | $3.07 | $13.42 | −$10.35 | $25.46 |
| Twilight Masquerade · 2024 | $2.95 | $9.44 | −$6.49 | $21.41 |
| Stellar Crown · 2024 | $2.87 | $9.23 | −$6.36 | $22.80 |
| Obsidian Flames · 2023 | $2.83 | $10.49 | −$7.66 | $36.57 |
| Scarlet & Violet · 2023 | $2.65 | $8.33 | −$5.68 | $42.05 |
| Paradox Rift · 2023 | $2.62 | $8.06 | −$5.44 | $24.70 |
| Mega Evolution · 2025 | $2.42 | $8.48 | −$6.06 | $19.89 |
| Surging Sparks · 2024 | $2.30 | $8.33 | −$6.03 | $23.19 |
| Chaos Rising · 2026 | $2.06 | $5.53 | −$3.47 | $48.49 |
| Perfect Order · 2026 | $1.96 | $5.87 | −$3.91 | $37.30 |
| Journey Together · 2025 | $1.72 | $7.88 | −$6.16 | $23.08 |
How this is figured. Expected value per pack = the sum over each hit rarity of (its pull rate × the average market value of a card at that rarity), counting only the “hit” tiers (double rares and above — commons, uncommons and plain rares are excluded so the number reflects what collectors chase). Pack cost is a sealed booster box price ÷ 36 (or a bundle ÷ 6 for sets sold without boxes). Avg gain / loss is expected raw value minus pack cost. The PSA-10 ceiling values those same hits as if every one graded a perfect 10 — an upper bound, not an expectation. All figures are Riffle’s estimated aggregates from live market data, not exact vendor prices, and the EV is a v0 approximation (it omits reverse-holo and parallel slots, so it runs conservative). Nothing here is investment advice.